Wall Street Has Lost the Plot.

If you’ve been watching the markets over the past three weeks and thinking, “What on earth is happening?”, you’re not alone. The market has been behaving like a toddler hurling spaghetti at the wall. Chaotic, messy, and disconnected from economic reality.

Let’s cut through the noise and walk through what actually happened, using data.

1. Earnings Season Was Strong

You wouldn’t know it from recent price action, but this quarter’s earnings were objectively impressive.

Historically, about 73–76% of S&P 500 companies beat earnings expectations each quarter¹.
This quarter, more than 83% beat expectations, meaning companies outperformed by a wide margin.

• The average earnings surprise this quarter came in around +7.8%, compared with a long-term average of +4%².
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• Revenue beats also came in above trend: about 64% of companies beat revenue expectations, compared with a typical 58% average³.
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• Even our darling AI rep, Nvidia posted better-than-expected results: revenue up +32% year-over-year, and guidance well above Wall Street estimates⁴.
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Corporate America delivered, even if the stock market didn’t act like it.

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2. The Jobs Report Was Stronger Than Expected

Amid the chaos, the labor market held up surprisingly well.

• The U.S. added 119,000 jobs, beating expectations of 90,000⁵.
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• The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, but for the good reason: more people re-entered the job market instead of exiting it⁶.
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• Wage growth remained stable and healthy.
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A strong labor market + strong earnings should have equaled a strong market.

It didn’t, because this volatility wasn’t about fundamentals. It was about psychology. Investors got into their heads, and pushed the market into a frenzy.

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3. Billionaire Stock Selling Sparked Panic, But This Should Mean Nothing For You

A handful of well-known billionaires sold shares recently, and the internet did what it always does: assumed they “knew something.”

Here are the real, boring details; decisions driven by liquidity, taxes, philanthropy, or diversification:

• Elon Musk sold roughly $8.4 billion of Tesla stock in planned sales over the past year⁷.
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• Mark Zuckerberg sold about $428 million of Meta stock as part of his pre-scheduled 10b5-1 plan⁸.
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• Jeff Bezos sold approximately $5.1 billion of Amazon stock earlier this year⁹.
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These transactions weren’t insider panic. They were logistics. Billionaires rebalance for entirely different reasons than everyday investors. It could be funding rocket companies, charitable commitments, tax planning…or underwriting the Met Gala.

Their personal financial decisions should have nothing to do with yours.

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4. So What Should You Do?

Stop looking for clues in every headline or billionaire’s Form 4.
Stop assuming panic is wisdom.
Stop trying to “out-smart” the tide. You can’t.

Pulling out of the market during volatility is like trying to swim against the tide. You may make a little progress for a moment, but eventually the tide drags you exactly where it was headed.

Because here’s the part investors forget:

• The S&P 500 has returned ~10% per year on average for nearly 100 years¹⁰.
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• It has recovered from every recession, war, political disaster, pandemic, debt crisis, oil shock, financial crash, and “this time is different” moment in modern history.
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• Markets experience 10% pullbacks nearly every year, and 15% pullbacks every 1–2 years¹¹.
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• Yet over long periods, the market still has gone up in 78% of calendar years¹².
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Long-term investors win by riding the tide, not fighting it.

So go focus on your own business and don’t look at your portfolio. If you have cash on the sidelines, don’t be afraid to deploy it.

And as always, if you are looking for a strong partner in financial planning and investing, apply to work with us here.

Footnotes

1. FactSet Earnings Insight – Historical EPS Beat Rate
2. Bloomberg – S&P 500 Average Earnings Surprise
3. FactSet – Revenue Beat Rates by Quarter
4. Nvidia Quarterly Earnings Release
5. Bureau of Labor Statistics – Employment Situation Report
6. BLS – Labor Force Participation Details
7. SEC Filings – Elon Musk Form 4 Sales
8. SEC Filings – Meta Platforms Insider Sales
9. SEC Filings – Jeff Bezos Amazon Stock Sales
10. NYU Stern – Historical S&P 500 Total Return Data
11. JPMorgan Guide to the Markets – Annual Drawdowns
12. Goldman Sachs Research – Frequency of Positive Market Years

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